alabama has recently been running ads for their "click it or ticket" campaign on all the local radio stations. i am a full proponent of this campaign, seeing as how my current driving record truly lends itself to not only seatbelts, but probably the same sort of restraint mechanisms they use on jets and roller coasters. on these ads a stern voice comes on at the very end and asserts that "last year 1,058 people died in alabama in automobile accidents, 543 of them weren't wearing seatbelts."
while my manager and big brother steve drove me home from inventory one night, the ad came on the radio. steve exclaimed, "that's the dumbest commercial i've heard on the radio!"
i replied to him, "steve, it's important to wear your seatbelt, it's not dumb!"
"yeah, but those statisitcs are useless! if you wanna convince me to wear my seatbelt, gimme better than a 50/50 chance. tell me that out os 1,100 people, 1,000 of them weren't wearing their seatbelts. not almost half. that means if iw ear my seatbelt i still only have a 50/50 chance of living!"
i think this is a very valid point.
<3gen
p.s. i was listening in on a customer's conversation the other day as he gave advice over the phone to what i gathered was a young woman who had been fired from a job. he then traipsed into the schools supplies aisle, picked up a compass, and said into the phone, mid-sentence of hallmark advice, "i'm going to learn how to use a compass. i've decided." i think this is a lesson for all of us.
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Actually, what Steve is saying is not quite the same thing. The commercial is saying, "IF someone died in a car accident, THEN they were wearing a seatbelt 50% of the time" and Steve's saying "IF someone is wearing a seatbelt, THEN they die 50% of the time they get in a car accident."
The two statements aren't actually equivalent. For example, consider a population of 50 people, of whom 40 wear seatbelts and 10 don't. Ten people die in car accidents; five were wearing seatbelts and five weren't. So, 50% of the people who died in a car accident were wearing a seatbelt, and 50% weren't. But 50% of the non-seatbelt wearing POPULATION got in an accident and died, but only 1/8 of the population of seatbelt-wearing people did. Clearly, it's better to wear a seatbelt and reduce your chances of dying to 1/8 rather than 1/2.
Sorry for the mathematical douchiness; I'm procrastinating on studying for a final and statistics is a field that can be used for evil sometimes. "Statistics are like a bikini -- what they reveal is interesting, but what they conceal is vital."
Hugs,
Sini
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